Elliott Wave Theory
Theory yang say market move dalam pattern 5-wave impulse + 3-wave correction berulang.
Penjelasan
Sobat Kripto, Elliott Wave Theory dikembangkan Ralph Nelson Elliott 1930-an. Postulate: market move dalam fractal pattern 5 wave dalam direction of main trend (impulse), followed by 3 wave correction. Sub-divide: each wave bisa di-subdivide jadi smaller wave. Cocok dengan Fibonacci ratios. Popular tapi controversial: highly interpretive.
Basic Structure
Impulse: 5 wave (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Wave 1, 3, 5: in direction of trend (advances). Wave 2 dan 4: corrections counter-trend. Wave 3 biasanya longest dan strongest. Correction: 3 wave (A, B, C). A and C: counter-trend, B: with trend. Total: 8 wave (5 impulse + 3 correction) completing one Elliott Wave cycle.
Rules dan Guidelines
Rules (strict): Wave 2 tidak retrace 100 persen Wave 1. Wave 3 tidak shortest dari 1, 3, 5. Wave 4 tidak overlap Wave 1. Guidelines (flexible): Wave 3 often extension (1,618 atau 2,618 of Wave 1). Wave 5 often equal Wave 1. Fibonacci ratios sering muncul antar wave.
Kritik dan Untuk Sobat Kripto
Critic: highly subjective, dua analyst bisa count wave differently. Bias retrospective: easy explain past, hard predict future. Defender: combined dengan price action dan Fibonacci, powerful framework. Untuk Sobat Kripto: Elliott Wave kompleks, butuh study mendalam (Frost & Prechter book). Pemula: avoid Elliott Wave sebagai primary tool, learn after master simpler concept.